PRIO Network

Conflict Trends


Coordinator: Håvard Strand

What are the trends in conflict

​Is the world becoming more peaceful? The over-arching goal of all peace research, including PRIO, is to promote this trend. It is therefore not surprising that PRIO is engaged in tracking conflict trends. For a large number of trends, the current statistics convey a very pleasant result: The world getting more peaceful!

The conflict trend group is:

  • Collecting data on political violence in many different forms and shapes. Our aim is to both update existing number and discover new concepts of political violence that should be tracked
  • Analyzing and discussing external data sources. PRIOs rather unique mix of researchers from different subjects assure a healthy combination of perspectives and methods
  • Thinking forward! What are the key obstacles to peace on earth, and how might we best understand what direction these obstacles might be developing? And, crucially, can we effectively interfere positively in these processes

Peer-reviewed-Journal-Article

Hegre, Håvard;Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv;Strand, Håvard;Urdal, Henrik; & Karlsen, Joakim (2013) Predicting Armed Conflict, 2010-2050 , International Studies Quarterly 55(2): 1–21. [Forthcoming]
Gates, Scott;Hegre, Håvard;Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; & Strand, Håvard (2012) Development Consequences of Armed Conflict , World Development 40(9): 1713–1722.
Holtermann, Helge (2012) Explaining the Development–Civil War Relationship , Conflict Management and Peace Science 29(1): 56–78.
Tollefsen, Andreas Forø;Strand, Håvard; & Buhaug, Halvard (2012) PRIO-GRID: A Unified Spatial Data Structure , Journal of Peace Research 49(2): 363–374.
Hallberg, Johan Dittrich (2012) PRIO Conflict Site 1989–2008: A Geo-Referenced Dataset on Armed Conflict , Conflict Management and Peace Science 29(2): 219–232.
Hegre, Håvard;Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; & Hultman, Lisa (2011) Simulating the Effect of Peacekeeping Operations, 2010-2035 , Lecture Notes In Computer Science 6589325–332.
Raleigh, Clionadh;Linke, Andrew;Hegre, Håvard; & Karlsen, Joakim (2010) Introducing ACLED: An Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset: Special Data Feature , Journal of Peace Research 47(5): 651–660.
Elbadawi, Ibrahim;Milante, Gary; & Hegre, Håvard (2008) Introduction: The Aftermath of Civil War , Journal of Peace Research 45(4): 451–459.

Conference Paper

Hegre, Håvard;Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv;Strand, Håvard; & Gates, Scott 2012 The Conflict Trap, presented at American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, , .
Hegre, Håvard;Hultman, Lisa ; & Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv 2010 Evaluating the Conflict Reducing Effects of UN Peace-Keeping Operations, presented at American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, , 1–5 September.