PRIO Network

Cities and Populations


Coordinator: Kristian Hoelscher

How urban and demographic transitions create conditions for peace and conflict

Over half the world’s population now lives in cities and by 2050, two thirds of the world’s population will be urban. Changes to population structure and composition such as fertility decline are altering socio-economic and political relations. Such urban and demographic transitions, while generating considerable opportunities, are also creating substantial challenges. The Cities and Populations research group at PRIO focuses on how such transformational processes shapes livelihoods and create conditions for peace or conflict.

Research questions include:
  • How do local politics and governance affect violence and insecurity in urban areas?
  • What role do urban youth play in supporting political participation and mobilisation?
  • Under what circumstances does displacement into urban areas events lead to peaceful or violent outcomes? 
  • Under what conditions are spatial, social, economic, or political inequalities in urban areas likely to lead to conflict?
  • How does conflict-induced urban displacement affect post-conflict reconciliation?
  • How do climate change induced pressures – such as rural to urban migration and food insecurity – affect social disorder in urban areas? 
  • What are macro-level security implications of urban growth and demographic change
  • How are health and fertility outcomes affected by processes such as urbanisation, civil conflict and demographic change?
 
Understanding the dynamics of cities and population change is vital for future peace research. While civil wars have been declining everyday violence in cites has been increasing. Similarly, demographic changes affecting cities, or urban displacement to due to conflict or environmental degradation may challenge inclusion and stability. Despite this, cities are also places of profound opportunity, and a deeper understanding of how individuals and governments negotiate risks and opportunities in cities is vital to ensure security in an urban future.
 
In responding to this, the group approaches the study of cities and populations from a multi disciplinary perspective, and deliberately engages researchers working with both qualitative and quantitative approaches. Drawing on backgrounds in diverse disciplines, the thematic focus on the city as a site, and urbanisation and population change as processes, encourages both highly focused and collaborative cross-cutting research.

 

Peer-reviewed-Journal-Article

Urdal, Henrik; & Hoelscher, Kristian (2012) Explaining Urban Social Disorder and Violence: An Empirical Study of Event Data from Asian and Sub-Saharan African Cities , International Interactions 38(4): 512–528.
Fox, Sean; & Hoelscher, Kristian (2012) Political Order, Development and Social Violence , Journal of Peace Research 49(3): 431–444.
Raleigh, Clionadh; & Hegre, Håvard (2009) Population Size, Concentration, and Civil War: A Geographically Disaggregated Analysis , Political Geography 28(4): 224–238.
Carling, Jørgen (2008) Toward a Demography of Immigrant Communities and Their Transnational Potential , International Migration Review 42(2): 449–475.

Book Chapter

Nordås, Ragnhild(2012) The Devil in the Demography? Religion, Identity, and War in Cote d'Ivoire Political Demography: How Population Changes Are Reshaping International Security and National Politics. : Oxford University Press(252–267).