PRIO Network

Peer-reviewed-Journal-Article
Contagion or Confusion? Why Conflicts Cluster in Space
Buhaug, Halvard; & Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede (2008) Contagion or Confusion? Why Conflicts Cluster in Space , International Studies Quarterly 52(2): 215–233.

Civil wars cluster in space as well as time. In this study, we develop and evaluate empirically alternative explanations for this observed clustering. We consider whether the spatial pattern of intrastate conflict simply stems from a similar distribution of relevant country attributes or whether conflicts indeed constitute a threat to other proximate states. Our results strongly suggest that there is a genuine neighborhood effect of armed conflict, over and beyond what individual country characteristics can account for. We then examine whether the risk of contagion depends on the degree of exposure to proximate conflicts. Contrary to common expectations, this appears not to be the case. Rather, we find that conflict is more likely when there are ethnic ties to groups in a neighboring conflict and that contagion is primarily a feature of separatist conflicts. This suggests that transnational ethnic linkages constitute a central mechanism of conflict contagion.

Halvard Buhaug

Halvard Buhaug

Research Professor at PRIO; Professor II in Political Science, NTNU

+47 22 54 77 63
halvard@prio.no

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex

+44(0)1206 82 01 44
ksg@essex.ac.uk