In realization of the critical role of Afghanistan’s neighbourhood to a sustainable peace in the country, this project describes and analyses the regional security dynamic. A basic premise of the project is that each of Afghanistan’s surrounding regions – South Asia, Central Asia and the Persian Gulf – have an inherent dominant security dynamic of their own. Hence, the engagement of neighbouring states in Afghanistan is primarily a reflection of existential security concerns within their own region.
The project will describe and analyze the security dynamic within each of the three surrounding regions, with a particular view to how it impacts on the Afghanistan policy of the various countries concerned, and with a view to key states in the larger neighbourhood and the role of global powers. We focus on the near political history, with a particular emphasis on post-2001 development. A number of questions fundamental to formulating a policy for constructive third party engagement will be addressed.
The project will be based on interviews in the key capitals of the region, and examination of a broad range of written sources. The main output will be in the form of four written reports, but the research team will also offer briefings to the MFA and others, as well as present the work at relevant conferences.
Kristian Berg Harpviken (senior researcher; PRIO director) is the project leader and Shahrbanou Tadjbaksh (Sciences Po, Paris) is engaged in a central research capacity. The project is part of the CMI-PRIO Afghanistan Research and Analysis Programme.