Climate Change and Conflict: Some Plausible Scenarios
-
Jan 2012 -
Human-induced climate change is one of the most drastic neo-Malthusian scenarios. The suggested causal chains presented in the literature from climate change to social consequences like conflict is long and fraught with uncertainties. Therefore they are hard to evaluate. One of the more widely-described scenarios is from global warming to sea-level rise to extensive migration to conflict, but even for this scenario every link is contested. Climate change has so many potential consequences for the physical environment that we could expect a large number of potential paths to conflict. This paper summarizes some of the points found in reviewing the literature on environmental security and conflict, and presents some scenarios in which climate change can have an effect on violent conflict. In addition, some paths to improved and increased knowledge on this topic are suggested.