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Arms exports to Egypt since January 2011: Czech ammunition likely used against demonstrators

Posted 24 Nov 2011 by Nicholas Marsh printer icon permanent link
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Clashes between security forces and pro-democracy demonstrators in Tahrir Square in Cairo during November 2011 have so far left 38 civilians dead. Ammunition found on Tahir square after the killing  was likely exported to Egypt by the Czech Republic in May or August 2011. Other countries have also exported millions of dollars or Euros worth of arms to Egypt since January 2011.
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Mike Lewis has an excellent blog post up on identification of ammunition used to repress demonstrators in Tahrir Square. He has used photographs of ammunition posted to various web sites to show the manufacturer, and so possible country of origin, of the ammunition.
 
This post is a quick follow-up to the great work done by Mike and his collaborators and I’ll briefly look into some possible transfers of the ammunition, and also highlight some other exports of arms to Egypt since January 2011.
 
Mike highlights a picture of a 9x19mm cartridge manufactured by Sellier & Bellot of the Czech Republic. He notes two things about the cartridge, first that it appears to be ‘live’ ammunition (as opposed to rubber or other ‘less than lethal’ projectiles). Second, that a marking on the head stamp indicates that it was manufactured in 2010.
 
That’s recent. Oftentimes ammunition found in the aftermath of an atrocity is decades old, and is so much more difficult to trace. The recent date of manufacture raises the possibility that the ammunition was exported in 2011- after the civil demonstrations in Egypt of January and February 2011 which led to the ousting of Mubarak’s government and involved 846 deaths.
 
A search of Eurostat’s Comext database on trade by EU member states shows that the Czech Republic did export small caliber ammunition to Egypt in May and August 2011. Moreover, no such exports are recorded in 2010.
 
The ammunition was exported over two periods. First, there was a small transfer worth  EUR 9560 in May 2011. Later, in August 2011 the Czech Republic reports a further export of EUR 23 091 worth of small caliber ammunition. It’s possible that there could have been further transfers later in the year –  at present the Eurostat database only provides data up to September 2011 (more will be added later).
 
The size of the transfer is interesting. It’s quite small and I wouldn’t expect it to have been a central procurement by the Egyptian army. If that were the case millions of Euros worth would have been ordered. In any case Egypt manufacturers its own ammunition. On the other hand, the EUR 23 091 transfer especially is too large to have been purchased by a private individual (for example for sport shooting).
 
My assumption, and it is very speculative, is that it was purchased by either for a relatively small specialist police, or military special forces, unit; or by a civilian dealer intent on selling it on (perhaps to several different clients).
 
The type of ammunition reported by the Czech Republic is also interesting. EU members can specify what type of small caliber ammunition they have traded – such as for pistols and revolvers, hunting rifles, sub-machineguns, or other military firearms (such as assault rifles or machineguns). In this case though the Czech Republic reported the small caliber ammunition as being ‘not elsewhere specified’– another way of defining the type as being ‘other’. We shouldn’t make too much of this tough as in my experience ‘not elsewhere specified’ is often used as a convenient catch all category.
 
So, concerning the Czech ammunition photographed in Tahrir square after this week’s killings, I think that the most likely route that it took was via authorized exports from the Czech Republic to the Egyptian Government in May or August 2011.
 
This though is a very preliminary assessment. The ammunition could have taken an indirect route to Egypt (having been exported to another country); or an indirect route to the security forces after it arrived (for example having been sold to a private dealer). The Eurostat data is based upon reports of goods moving through customs and just reports that ammunition moved from one country to another. It doesn’t tell us anything about the vendor, purchaser, end-user or any other party involved in the transaction. Moreover, I’d like more definitive confirmation that the round was definitely manufactured in 2010. 
 
Mike highlights two other pieces of used ammunition that I’ll also briefly mention here. They are Italian and US manufactured 12 gague shotgun cartridges. Italy didn’t report to Eurostat any exports of shotgun ammunition to Egypt in 2011. It did though report such a transfers in 2010 and in previous years. Similarly, the USA reported exports of shotgun cartridges to Egypt in 2007 (see below), but not afterward .
 
It’s likely then that the shotgun ammunition was imported by Egypt before the demonstrations in January and February 2011 that ousted the Mubarak regime and resulted in the installation of a military government. And again, there are other routes by which the ammunition could have reached Egypt.
 
The Czech government isn’t the only one to have exported arms and ammunition to Egypt since January 2011. Eurostat reports that European states reported exports of EUR 1 555 849 worth of arms between January and September 2011. These exports can be disaggregated as follows:
 
Austria: EUR 58 770 worth of ‘confidential trade’ (covered by arms and ammunition).
Cyprus: EUR 236 395 worth of shotguns and shotgun cartridges.
Czech Republic: EUR 113 575 worth of pistols and revolvers, parts and accessories of revolvers and pistols, and small caliber ammunition (see above).
Germany: EUR 139 384 worth of shotguns, shotgun cartridges and parts and accessories of pistols and revolvers.
France: EUR 781 079 worth of parts of arms, small caliber ammunition, large caliber ammunition and other diverse munitions.
The United Kingdom: EUR 0 worth of ‘confidential trade’ in arms and ammunition. It is likely that the value as been redacted.
Greece: EUR 7 553 worth of shotgun cartridges.
Italy: EUR 145 460 worth of shotguns and parts of shotgun ammunition.
Poland: EUR 53 168 worth of parts of military weapons.
Slovakia: EUR 456 worth of revolvers and pistols.
 
Exports from the EU are governed by the EU's Common Position. It includes reference to concerns about human rights, internal conflict and regional security. To recap, by March 2011 some 850 pro-democracy demonstrators had been killed and Egypt was under the control of a military regime. Civil war had broken out over the border in Libya, there were ongoing conflicts over the southern border in Sudan, and to the East  Egypt has been used as a conduit for trafficking arms into Gaza. Governments using the EU Common Position would surely had cause for concern about arms exported to Egypt.  Again, though, its difficult to make any broader assessment as the Eurostat data we have on these transfers is limited (see above).
 
During the same period (January to September 2011) the USA also reported exports of USD 13 536 090 worth of arms and ammunition, namely:  Parts of Guided Missiles; Cartridges; Centerfire Autoloading Rifles; Bombs, Grenades, and their Munitions; Machineguns; Self-Propelled Artillery; Artillery; Rocket Launchers; Military Rifles; Pump Action Shotguns; and Parts of Munitions. This data, like that from Eurostat, is based upon reports of goods moving through customs, so we don't have any more information about the context of the transfers (see above regarding Eurostat).
 
The US does not, of course, follow the EU Common Position. Nevertheless, it is, and should be, concerned about human rights violations committed by Egypt’s security forces, and about peace and stability in Egypt and the region.
 
It is of course likely that other countries have also exported arms to Egypt. We only have such up-to-date data on the EU, US and a few other countries. Over the next few years some others may well report transfers to Egypt in National Reports on the arms trade, or to the UN Register of Conventional Arms. Other countries do not report at all. 
 
To conclude, the available information suggests that the Czech Republic exported small caliber ammunition to Egypt in May and August 2011, and that some of that ammunition was used to fire on demonstrators in Tahir Square in November 2011. The Czech Republic is not alone in having exported arms to Egypt since January 2011. If the disturbances continue we may, but hopefully not, see other country’s weapons and ammunition being used to shoot civilian demonstrators.  
 
 
All the governments involved in exporting arms to Egypt since January 2011 should take this opportunity to clarify exactly what was transferred, and to whom.
 
 
Update 25 November 2011
 
I have a problem with the software that allowe me to review comments (and so exclude spam etc),  so I'll copy and past one left by Mike Lweis:
 
Thanks Nic! This is super-interesting - to my shame I didn't even know that the Comext database was so up-to-date (I'm still toiling away with Comtrade - how late 1990s...)

The possibility that there may have been Czech ammunition exports to Egypt in May and August is particularly interesting in light of statements reportedly made by the Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs to Amnesty Internatonal Czech Republic on 3 October 2011: that the Czech Republic stopped issuing arms exports to Egypt on 9 Feb, and that as of 3 Oct they had issued no new ones.

Of course, this doesn't say anything directly about *existing* licenses - and Amnesty's report gestures at a *possible* loophole: they note (fn.120 at the link below) that the suspension of arms export licences in the Czech Republic can last 30 days plus an additional 30 days extension (before they have to be released or revoked); and that although a new amendment to Czech export law allows indefinite suspension until the situation in the destination country changes, this didn't come into force until September 2011...

http://www.amnesty.org/en/library/asset/ACT30/117/2011/en/049fdeee-66fe-4b13-a90e-6d7773d6a546/act301172011en.pdf
 
 

Some interesting reads

Posted 03 Nov 2011 by Tanjina Haque printer icon permanent link
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Here's a some highlights of what we've been reading
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A comprehensive report by IANSA on Woman, Gender and Gun Violence in the Middle East, discusses various issues related to the social structure in the Middle Eastern countries in terms of power dynamics, impact and association of women and some very interesting recommendations for the role of women in small arms control.  The findings in this report were based on assessment conducted in Lebanon, Jordan and occupied  Palestinian Territory. This articles taps into various aspects of gun violence against men and women, crime scenarios, accessibility of weapons, armed domestic violence, political affiliation and much more.    
              
Another IANSA report on the engagement of women in weapon control titled Why Women, Effective Engagement for small arms control, focuses on actual solutions to problems identified in the previous report.  This report confers the current situation, local and international initiatives, defining role of women in achieving this goal.
The article titled The race is on to find Libya's missing missiles, published on 2011-10-28 by James Foley in Global Post, talks about unsecured missiles, and other weapons in Libya.  It's quite alarming how missiles are just laying around unguarded and out in the open.  The ammunition are feared have been smuggled to Gaza and other such volatile locations. There’s a major concern regarding accumulation of small arms in Libya as it said to be “10 times greater than in post-war Iraq”
 
A fascinating photo essay on arms and violence - titled État d'Armes - in the Democratic Republic of Congo portrays a frightening state of the war stricken country. There is a similar situation in DRC to Libya, in that both have a large amount of weapons scattered around uncontrolled.  The essay contains images of human casualties of conflict as well as pictures of the chaotic state of storage of small arms.

More missiles lying around in Libya

Posted 02 Nov 2011 by Nicholas Marsh printer icon permanent link
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Via Chris Chivers, here is a video showing SA7 MANPADS (Man-Portable Air Defence Systems) missiles in their launch tubes lying in a rough heap on some corner of Libya. This post very briefly looks at the possible destinations of trafficked missiles from Libya. ​If they are smuggled out the country, where might they go and how dangerous are they?

 

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​As Chivers notes, there is no sign of any grip stocks or battery/coolant units in the video, so the missiles couldn’t have been fired by intrepid videographer’s friends. (They are the items below the launch tube which can be seen in this photograph being held by the operator). But still, anyone could have put the missiles in the back of a truck and driven off with them. Straight commerce and the laws of supply and demand would suggest that if material is just lying around the missiles could sooner or later be reunited with grip stocks and batteries.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, now that the fighting is (hopefully) over it is important that the large quantities of weapons lying around the country are brought under control – least the country become a bonanza for traffickers. The above video also features rockets and ammunition for mortars and recoilless rifles. Even if they weren’t fired, that quantity of explosives could be used to make an IED.

As for the missiles, the concern on many people's minds is that one could be used to shoot down a civilian airliner in, say, the USA or Europe. In that sense the SA7 (an older missile pictured in the above video) is just as much a concern as the much more modern SA24s which were identified in Libya during the war. Due to their range, MANPADS are only suitable for attacks on relatively low flying aircraft – which for a civilian airliner means when it is landing or taking off. Civilian airliners do so in a slow and predictable fashion, and normally don't carry have countermeasures, an SA24 would be sufficient to hit an Airbus or Boeing approaching an airport.  It is though worth noting that MANPADS missiles are small and designed to shoot down small low flying military aircraft. There are some cases in which large multi-engined civilian airliners have survived a MANPADS hit, but that’s certainly not something you would want to rely upon if you were a passenger on the plane (seehere page 33-4).

There are a few reasons for some very cautious optimism that the Libyan missiles won’t be used for terrorist attacks against airliners in western countries. It appears that the SA24s identified in Libya can only be launched from a truck.  This isn't definitive information, but the author, Maxim Pyadushkin, is usually pretty good. This reduces the proliferation concerns as it would be much harder to smuggle a truck than a missile and launcher (but it certainly would not be impossible as previous seaborne smuggling attempts have shown).
 
In addition, I'm not convinced about the condition of the SA7s found in Libya. Certainly some launch tubes have been photographed with their battery units and grip stocks. But still, my impression is that Gaddafi's regime just let huge quantities of material sit gathering dust in depots for decades (for example see this depot which contained SA7 launch tubes). In many cases, the munitions in the looted depots were covered in thick layers of dust. In particular, the launchers’ batteries have finite lives. I'm speculating, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if the SA7s in Libya’s inventories hadn't been maintained for a long time if at all. After the fighting, as the above video shows, in many cases the component parts have been left lying in the desert for years.
 
It is worth noting that despite MANPADS having existed for decades, there are very few incidents of civilian aircraft having been shot down outside war zones (see here pages 5-6, and here page 11). There are several reasons for this. MANPADS in working order are much more readily available to non-state actors in war zones (either following capture from government stocks or after donation by a sponsor government). In addition, non-state groups in civil wars often have high levels of organization and financing which means that they are better able to obtain working missiles and launchers and employ people with the necessary skills to operate them. Last, opposition groups in civil wars often have secure areas in which they can store weapons. That isn’t the case for (most) terrorist groups in Western countries who would have to find a way to store and transport the MANPADS without word leaking out to local police forces.
 
In addition, in active conflict zones there is a very pressing need for MANPADS. Opposition combatants and base areas will be subjected to air attack by government air forces and they need a means to shoot down those aircraft, or at least a deterrent to ensure that they don’t fly near. That need isn’t felt by a terrorist group in a Western country. Moreover, it has plenty of other means to kill and cause mayhem – a very effective bomb can be made from fertilizer and fuel oil – which don’t carry with them the additional risks of discovery that are part and parcel with trying to smuggle such an infamous weapon across borders and into the vicinity of an airport. The strong international focus upon preventing the proliferation of MANPADS has lessened their attractiveness at a weapon to terrorists.
 
A bigger concern, for me, is that MANPADS in Libya might be acquired by a government. Ones that may try to acquire them fall into three categories. The first are those that are under embargo, and the rationale for them to obtain arms from Libya is clear. They couldn't legally buy such missiles on the international market, and so they will attempt to obtain them through illicit channels. The second are governments that are not under embargo, but which would find it very hard to buy MANPADS. Most of the main manufacturing countries have actually agreed to try to limit the proliferation of MANPADS, especially examples with the highest technology (for example via the Wassenaar Arrangement). Finally, there are governments that could buy MANPADS internationally, but just see the opportunity for a bargain. This probably isn't such a big issue given that there are profound negative effect on their reputation and dealings with other arms exporters if they were caught in the act.
 
So, for me, likely destinations of Libyan MANPADS, if they were to be trafficked, would be governments such as Sudan or well organized groups in war zones such as Hezbollah. That might lead to passengers in London or New York sleeping easier on the couches in the departure lounges, but the missiles could still cause untold harm wherever they end up.

US firearm ownership increases, again

Posted 01 Nov 2011 by Nicholas Marsh printer icon permanent link
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A Gallup survey suggests that firearms ownership in the USA has risen in recent years, and that this continues a long term trend.

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​Gallup reports that:

Forty-seven percent of American adults currently report that they have a gun in their home or elsewhere on their property. This is up from 41% a year ago and is the highest Gallup has recorded since 1993, albeit marginally above the 44% and 45% highs seen during that period.

Gallup also asked about personal gun ownership. It found that “34% of all Americans personally own a gun [and] the gender gap in personal gun ownership is wider than that seen for household ownership, as 46% of all adult men vs. 23% of all women say they personally own a gun.” Those most likely to own a firearm are middle-aged adults (35 to 54) and adults with no college education.
 
This survey accords with Aaron Karp’s estimate that there are some 270 000 000 firearms in civilian possession in the USA. The two hundred and seventy million is about 84 per cent of the USA’s population of some 314 million. Firearms owners, though, frequently own more than one gun. Some people collect firearms and acquire many for their own sake. But for many, firearms are objects of utility, used for recreation, personal protection and as sporting equipment. People own several for the same reason that I own three pairs of skis (I use them for different styles of skiing). So someone might own a pistol for target shooting and personal protection, a shotgun for birds and a rifle for hunting deer. And that’s not to say that firearms don’t also have meaning in terms of culture or personal identity, but then so do my skis.
 
Those 270 million firearms in the USA are some 42 per cent of the estimate for all civilian possession in the world. This disproportionate level of firearms ownership in the USA is due to three factors. It is an affluent developed country, and so the purchase of a firearm is a very small proportion of average income. It has a large population, and a population that has a high demand for firearms. This is in contrast to many developed countries in which tighter regulation and other factors mean that demand isn’t so high, and developing countries in which average wages are so low that the purchase of a firearm and ammunition would use a significant proportion of household income.
That US citizens own almost half of the world's stocks of civilian held firearms is also reflected in the trade statistics. In 2009, Pablo Dreyfus, Matt Schroder and I found that:
The United States imports most of the world’s exported handguns and many of the world’s exported sporting and hunting shotguns and rifles. In 2006 handgun sales to the United States accounted for 59 per cent of the major exporters’ sales, and US imports of sporting and hunting shotguns and rifles accounted for 42 per cent. 
Some countries firearms export industries are based almost wholly upon sales to the USA. For example, 98 per cent of Croatia’s exports of handguns were to the US. Imports by its consumers underpin a large proportion of the global firearms industry.
 
The Gallup Survey also highlights something that Tom Jackson, Owen Greene and I wrote about in Small Arms Crime and Conflict. The USA has been the site of the majority of research on firearms and mortality published in academic journals. Unfortunately for researchers, we lack accurate statistics on firearms ownership in the USA (Aaron’s figure above is an estimate) as it has no national firearms registry. So we have to rely upon things like the Gallup survey, and proxies like incidence of suicide, NRA membership or subscriptions to gun magazines.

News highlights - October

Posted 27 Oct 2011 by Tanjina Haque printer icon permanent link
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​We undertake daily searches of news articles on small arms which are placed in the NISAT Document Library. Here are some highlights.
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News articles on small arms related issues, dated 15th August to 30th September, 2011 coverd weapon transfer, production, trade, illegal activities, crime and mortality, laws and policies and as such. Mostly, there were stories of arrests made due to illegal weapon possession and crimes committed. Jamaica and Trinidad & Tobago are the two countries with highest number of arrest reports during the afore mentioned time period. Africa and India are two of the most active regions in terms of the illegal weapon related crimes and terrorist attacks. There are articles that show great concern about misuse of weapons in Libya and neighboring countries. However, these stories hardly reflect the true scale of the problem, as not all countries maintain complete transparency. There are a few reports that are a little different from what may have become conventional news.
 
The article titled “ATF promotes supervisors in controversial gun operation”, published on 2011-08-16 by Richard A. Serrano in Los Angeles Times, talks about three field supervisors being upgraded to management position, who were closely associated with controversial gun operation. They’ve been criticized for their role in this program which later led to serious criminal activities. There wasn’t any explanation provided to why these individuals were placed in a much powerful position despite their error in judgment.
 
An article titled “China to shut down websites selling guns, explosives”, published on 2011-08-25 by the Xinhua News Agency  talks about how this law put forward by China’s law enforcement authorities is in contrast with the Second Amendment (Amendment II) to the United States Constitution that protects the right of the people to keep and bear arms. The question that arises from this is which of the super power’s policies are more effective in terms of mitigating arms use violation. 
 
In the article titled “How can guns be removed after conflict?”, published on  2011-08-16 in The Citizen Newspaper; I found it quite interesting that the authorities are trying to work out the right process of freeing the African countries of weapons and ammunition.  There are practical examples of different methods undertaken in neighboring countries and their disappointing outcome. Experts have shown concern that there may not be a “universal solution”.