|
|
Please note: This page refers to an event that has already taken place.
PEGC Nordic Doctoral Network Course: 'Survival Analysis'
Course director: Håvard Hegre
| Time: |
Mon 23 (10:15) - Thu 26 (15:00) January 2006 |
| Place: |
University of Oslo, Dept. of Political Science, Molkte Moes vei 31, Oslo, Norway |
Description
The course gives an introduction to methods for the analysis of duration data
(often called survival analysis or event history modeling). The course is targeted
at doctoral students and advanced master students in political science
and sociology.
The course will consist of lectures and exercises. The core textbook for the
lectures is Box-Ste ffensmeier & Jones (2004). The software package Stata will
be used for the exercises (documented in Cleves et al. 2004).
A set of replication data sets will be made available online later. Consult
this document later for more information.
Core topics
• Areas of application of survival analysis methodology
• Data setup, left and right censoring, ties
• Definition of survivor and hazard functions
• Kaplan-Meier estimation of survivor and hazard functions
• Models: the proportional hazard model
• Briefly on Maximum Likelihood Estimation
• Interpretation of parameters in the linear component of the model
• Models for the baseline hazard: Exponential, Weibull, Log-logistic, Lognormal, Cox
• Models: Accelerated Failure Time Model
• Models for multiple events
• Model Selection, Diagnostics
• Relationship to panel/time series-logit: Discrete time survival analysis
• Relationship to OLS with duration as dependent variable
Literature
Note: The reading list is still preliminary. I may assign a couple more articles
with applications. The two main books will not be changed.
Beck, Nathaniel; Jonathan N. Katz & Richard Tucker, 1998. ‘Taking Time
Seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable’,
American Journal of Political Science 42(4): 1260—1288.
Bienen, Henry, & Nicholas van de Walle, 1992. ‘A Proportional Hazard
Model of Leadership Duration’, Journal of Politics 54 (August): 685—171.
Box-Ste ffensmeier, Janet M. & Bradford S. Jones, 2004. Event History Modeling.
A Guide for Social Scientists . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
(212 pp.)
Cleves, Mario; William W. Gould, & Roberto Gutierrez, 2004. An Introduction
to Survival Analysis Using Stata, Revised Edition. Stata Press. (304
pp.)
Collier, Paul; Anke Hoe ffler & Måns Söderbom, 2004. ‘On the Duration of
Civil War’, Journal of Peace Research 41(3):253—274.
Fearon, James D., 2004. ‘Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer
Than Others?’, Journal of Peace Research 41(3): 275—302.
Gasiorowski, Mark J., 1995. ‘Economic Crisis and Political Regime Change:
An Event History Analysis’, American Political Science Review 89(4): 882—897.
Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre, Mark Jones & Håvard Strand, 2003a. ‘Institutional
Inconsistency and Polity Duration’, typescript, PRIO. URL: http://www.
prio.no/page/preview/preview/9429/38059.html.
Ireland, Michael J.& Scott Sigmund Gartner, 2001. ‘Time to Fight: Government
Type and Con flict Initiation in Parliamentary Systems’ Journal of Conflict
Resolution , 45(5): 547-568.
King, Gary., 1989. Unifying Political Methodology. The Likelihood Theory
of Statistical Inference , ch., 4 (pp. 59—94). Michigan, MI: Michigan University
Press.
Pevehouse, Jon, 2002. ‘With a Little Help from My Friends? Regional Organizations
and the Consolidation of Democracy’, American Journal of Political
Science , 46(3): 611—626.
Raknerud, Arvid & Håvard Hegre, 1997. ‘The Hazard of War: Reassessing
the Evidence for the Democratic Peace’, Journal of Peace Research 34(4): 385-404.
|