PRIO Network
Dynamics of Institutional Change and Conflict

The Dynamics of Institutional Change and Conflict

Led by Håvard Hegre

This working group studies the interplay of the processes of civil war onset and termination, changes to political institutions, and the societal changes brought about by ‘modernization’. These changes have closely related explanations. Democracies fail to prevent conflict in the developing world in part because they are vulnerable to reversals to authoritarian rule – often by means of violence. Similarly, democratization is a political conflict that sometimes turns violent. Socio-economic factors affect strategies and goals of the parties to the political conflict. At the same time, political stability affects societal changes. The group brings together specialists on different aspects of this nexus, and also seeks to identify institutions that may lift countries out of the ‘conflict trap’.

Events and workshops
Projects:
(past projects can be found in the project archive)
Members
(past members can be found in the people section)
Publications
Carey, Sabine C., 2006. 'The Dynamic Relationship between Protest and Repression', Political Research Quarterly 59(1): 1–11.
Carey, Sabine C., 2007. 'Rebellion in Africa: Disaggregating the Effect of Political Regimes', Journal of Peace Research 44(1): 47–64.
Fjelde, Hanne & Håvard Hegre, 2006. 'Democracy Depraved. Corruption and Institutional Change 1985-2000', presented at the Peace Science Society's Annual Meeting, Columbus, OH, 20 November.
Fjelde, Hanne & Håvard Hegre, 2007. 'Democracy Depraved: Corruption and Institutional Change 1985–2004', presented at the 48th Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, Chicago, IL, 28 February–3 March.
Fjelde, Hanne & Indra de Soysa, 2009. 'Coercion, Co-optation, or Cooperation? State Capacity and the Risk of Civil War, 1961–2004', Conflict Management and Peace Science 26(1): 5–25.
Fjelde, Hanne, 2008. 'Is there an Autocratic Civil Peace? Authoritarian Regimes and Civil Conflict, 1971-2001', presented at Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, San Francisco, CA, 26 March.
Fjelde, Hanne, 2008. 'Non-Democratic Governance and the Onset of Civil War, 1972-2003', presented at 49th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, San Francisco, CA, 26–29 March.
Fjelde, Hanne, 2009. 'Buying Peace? Oil Wealth, Corruption and Civil War, 1985-99', Journal of Peace Research 46(2): 199–218.
Gates, Scott & Håvard Strand, 2008. 'Military Intervention, Democratization, and Post-conflict Political Stability' in Magnus Öberg & Kaare Strøm, eds, Resources, Governance and Civil Conflict. Abingdon: Routledge (147–162).
Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre, Mark P. Jones & Håvard Strand, 2006. 'Institutional Inconsistency and Political Instability: Polity Duration, 1800-2000', American Journal of Political Science 50(4): 893–908.
Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre, Mark P. Jones & Håvard Strand, 2007. 'Democratic Waves? War, New States, and Global Patterns of Democratization, 1800 –2000', presented at Statsvitenskaplig Fagkonferanse, Trondheim, 3–5 March.
Gjerde, Camilla, 2006. 'Presidential Recruitment: Selection of Presidential Candidates in Africa, Asia, and Latin America', presented at Norwegian Political Science Conference, University of Bergen, 6 January.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Håvard Hegre & Håvard Strand, 2009. 'Democracy and Civil War' in Handbook of War Studies III. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press (155–192).
Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Lene Siljeholm Christiansen & Håvard Hegre, 2007. 'Democratic Jihad? Military Intervention and Democracy', presented at Post-Conflict Transitions Conference, World Bank, Washington, DC, 30 April–1 May.
Hegre, Håvard & Ibrahim Elbadawi, 2004. 'Globalization, Economic Shocks, and Armed Conflict', presented at a conference on ‘Globalization, Territoriality and Conflict’, University of California, San Diego, 16–18 January.
Hegre, Håvard & Joachim Carlsen, 2007. 'Simulating the Evolution of Global Democracy Levels', presented at National Political Science Conference, Trondheim, 3–5 January.
Hegre, Håvard & Nicholas Sambanis, 2004. 'Sensitivity Analysis of the Empirical Literature on Civil War Onset', presented at a meeting of the Polarization and Conflict network, Voksenåsen, Oslo, 2–4 July.
Hegre, Håvard & Nicholas Sambanis, 2006. 'Sensitivity Analysis of the Empirical Literature on Civil War Onset', Journal of Conflict Resolution 50(4): 508–535.
Hegre, Håvard, 2004. 'The Limits of the Liberal Peace', Dissertation submitted for the degree of Dr. Philos, Department of Political Science, Supervisors: Jon Hovi, UiO (defended 6 November 2004. Committee: John R. Oneal, Erik Gartzke, and Knut Midgaard), University of Oslo. .
Hegre, Håvard, 2004. 'De langvarige borgerkrigene' [The Duration of Civil Wars], Dagbladet, 17 September.
Hegre, Håvard, 2004. 'Kampen mot borgerkriger' [Fighting Civil Wars], Dagbladet, 9 July.
Hegre, Håvard, 2005. 'Identifying How Trade Matters. A Rejoinder', Conflict Management and Peace Science 22(3): 235–237.
Hegre, Håvard, 2005. 'Development and the Liberal Peace', Nordic Journal of Political Economy 31(1): 17–46.
Hegre, Håvard, 2005. 'Identifying How Trade Matters in Empirical Studies of Interstate Conflict', Conflict Management and Peace Science 22(3): 217–224.
Hegre, Håvard, 2005. 'Gravitating Toward War. The Gravity Model of Trade and the Liberal Peace', presented at the 3rd General Conference of the European Consortium of Political Research, Budapest, 8–10 September.
Hegre, Håvard; Gudrun Østby & Clionadh Raleigh, 2007. 'Economic Deprivation and Civil War Events: A Disaggregated Study of Liberia', presented at the 48th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, Chicago, IL, 28 February–3 March.
Hegre, Håvard; Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal, 2008. 'The Future of Armed Conflict: Predicting the Incidence of Conflict, 2007-2030', presented at 49th Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, San Francisco, CA, 26–29 March.
Holtermann, Helge, 2008. 'Poverty and Civil War: An Assessment of Four Prominent Explanations of the Per Capita Income-Civil War Relationship', Political Science, University of Oslo. Supervisor: Håvard Hegre. Defended 4 January 2008.
Knutsen, Carl Henrik, 2008. '"I'll mind my business if you mind yours": The OAU and non-intervention strategies in Post-Colonial Africa', presented at The Dynamics of Institutional Change and Conflict Working Group Workshop, PRIO, Oslo, 29–30 September.
Knutsen, Carl Henrik, 2010. 'Measuring Effective Democracy', International Political Science Review 31(2): 109–128.
Nome, Martin Austvoll, 2005. 'Transnational Ethnic Dimensions of Third-Party Interventions in Civil Conflicts', MA Thesis, Department of Political Science, Department of Political Science, University of Oslo. Supervisor: Håvard Hegre. Defended 13 December.
Nome, Martin Austvoll, 2006. 'Adventures in the Second Image: The Intervention-proneness of Ethnically Dominant States', presented at the workshop on Polarization and Conflict (PAC), Nicosia, Cyprus, 26–29 April.
Nome, Martin Austvoll, 2006. 'Ethnic Correlates of Foreign Interventions in Civil Conflicts', presented at Norwegian Political Science Conference, Bergen, 6 January.
Nome, Martin Austvoll, 2006. 'Structure and Power in Transnational Ethnic Affinities: An Application to Foreign Interventions in Civil Conflicts', presented at the Oslo GROW-net Workshop, Oslo, 10–11 February.
Nome, Martin Austvoll, 2006. 'Theorising the International Escalation of 'Ethnic Conflict'. The Social Ontology of Ethnicity, Executive Choice, and the Bridge Between', presented at the Workshop on the Role of First Actors in Civil War, CSCW, PRIO, Oslo, 17–18 August.
Nome, Martin Austvoll, 2006. 'Transnational Ethnic Dimensions of Third-Party Interventions in Civil Wars', presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia, PA, 31 Aug–3 September.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv, 2009. 'Trekantdramaet mellom Israel, Iran og Hezbollah' [The Israel - Iran - Hezbollah Threesome], Babylon  7(2): 66 – 87.
Østby, Gudrun, 2005. 'Inequality, Institutions, and Instability: Horizontal Inequalities, Political Institutions, and Civil Conflict in Developing Countries 1986–2003', presented at the 1st PIDDCP (Political Institutions, Development and a Domestic Civil Peace), Oxford, 10–12 November.
Østby, Gudrun, 2008. 'Horizontal Inequalities, Political Environment and Civil Conflict: Evidence From 55 Developing Countries' in Horizontal Inequalities and Conflict: Understanding Group Violence in Multiethnic Societies. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan (136–157).
Rolandsen, Øystein H., 2005. Guerrilla Government: Political Changes in the Southern Sudan during the 1990s. Uppsala: Nordic Africa Institute.
Rolandsen, Øystein H., 2006. 'In Search of the Peace Dividend: the Southern Sudan One Year after the Signatures', presented at the 7th International Sudan Studies Conference, Bergen, 7 April.
Rolandsen, Øystein H., 2008. 'Becoming a Rebel in the Southern Sudan, 1961-63', presented at Meeting of Working Group 8: The Dynamics of Institutional Change and Conflict, Oslo, 29 September.
Rolandsen, Øystein H., 2008. 'Democratication in the Sudan and Prospects for National Elections in 2009', presented at Støttegruppe for Fred i Sudan conference, Oslo, 13 June.
Rolandsen, Øystein H., 2008. 'Democratisation in the Sudan and SPLM’s Second National Convention', presented at University of Durham and Foreign and Commonwealth Office workshop, Foreign and Commonwealth Office, 3 July.
Rolandsen, Øystein H., 2008. 'Guns for Hire Aid Consultancies and Academic Integrity', presented at FIWON, Oslo, 6 November.
Rolandsen, Øystein H., 2008. 'Making Civil War in the Southern Sudan, 1961-3', presented at African Studies Association 51st Annual Meeting, Chicago, IL, 13–16 November.
Strand, Håvard & Henrik Urdal, 2008. 'Youth Bulges, Democratic Elections, and Political Instability', presented at 49th Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, San Francisco, CA, 26–29 March.
Strand, Håvard, 2007. 'Political Regimes and Civil War Revisited', Department of Political Science, University of Oslo. Supervisor: Håvard Hegre. Defended 22 June.
Urdal, Henrik & Bilal Barakat, 2008. 'Breaking the Waves? Does Education Mediate the Relationship Between Youth Bulges and Political Violence', presented at 49th Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, San Francisco, CA, 26–29 March.
Urdal, Henrik & Kristian Hoelscher, 2008. 'Urban Youth Bulges and Social Disorder: An Empirical Study of Asian and Sub-Saharan African Cities', presented at Conference on ‘Youth Exclusion and Political Violence: Breaking the Link and Engaging Young People Positively in Development’, Oslo, 4–5 December.
Urdal, Henrik, 2006. 'A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence', International Studies Quarterly 50(3): 607–630.
Urdal, Henrik, 2007. 'The Demographics of Political Violence: Youth Bulges, Insecurity and Conflict' in Lael Brainard & Derek Chollet, eds, Too Poor for Peace? Global Poverty, Conflict and Security in the 21st Century. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press (90–100).