Nobel Peace Prize 2013: PRIO Director's Speculations

The nomination deadline for this year's Nobel Peace Prize has passed (1 February), and PRIO Director Kristian Berg Harpviken again speculates on who will be bestowed the honour this year. While the PRIO director may be well placed to speculate on this topic, his speculations do not confirm nor endorse any candidate. He has chosen not to nominate anyone himself. PRIO does not have any formal links to the Nobel Institute and the Nobel Peace Prize Committee in Oslo; consequently, the speculations do not reflect their opinion or choice.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee bases its assessment on valid nominations that they receive by 1 February each year. A number of people around the world, including all members of parliaments, have the right to nominate. The members of the Norwegian Nobel Committee can also nominate candidates in their first meeting following the deadline. The winner is usually announced on the first Friday of October.

Toward the end of the page you will also find a list of nominees for this year's prize.

Kristian Berg Harpviken's shortlist for the Nobel Peace Prize 2013

• Malala Yousafzai
• Denis Mukwege
• Lyudmila Alexeyeva, Svetlana Gannushkina and Lilya Shibanova
• Democratic Voice of Burma
• John Onaiyekan and Mohamed Sa'ad Abubakar

Harpviken's favourite for this year's prize is Malala Yosufzai, the 15 year old girl from Swat Valley, Pakistan who stood up against Taliban's ban on education for girls and became a global symbol of children's right to education and security. The second candidate on the shortlist is the Congolese physician and gynaecologist Denis Mukwege, the man behind the Panzi Hospital, a leading figure in the fight against sexual violence worldwide, committed to the treatment of women victims. Third on Harpviken's list are three Russian women, Lyudmila Alexeyeva (Helsinki Group), Svetlana Gannushkina (Memorial) and Lilya Shibanova (Golos); all front persons of Russian organizations working for the promotion of human rights, democracy and reconciliation. Harpviken maintains that the recurrent theme of independent reporting stands a chance for this year's prize, and fourth on his list figures the Democratic Voice of Burma, the radio and TV station that has been broadcasting from exile for 20 years but which is now relocating to Myanmar. Last, and also a theme figuring on Harpviken's list previously, is religious dialogue, represented by the Nigerian priest John Onaiyekan and imam Mohamed Sa'ad Abubakar.

About the favourites

Malala Yousafzai

Conflict and oppression affects children severely. It not only puts children at physical risk, but in many cases also violates their basic right to education, by attacking schools and people, destroying and hindering access to buildings and materials, and forcing families to flee. This was acknowledged also by last year's Peace Prize winner, the Europen Union, who chose to dedicate the prize funds to education for children in conflict areas. Moreover, education is a fundamental right, closely associated with democracy, and contributes importantly to peace.

When the Taliban violently took over the Swat Valley in Pakistan in 2008-09, they banned education for girls (along with among other things music and television). As early as in September 2008, the then 11 years old Malala Yousafzai spoke in public at a local press club in front of reporters from the region on "How dare the Taliban take away my basic right to education?". As the Taliban tore down girls' schools and fighting took place between the military and the Taliban, Malala blogged semi-anonymously (under pseudonym, but the word increasingly spread) for the first half of 2009 about her life and education for BBC Urdu Services by passing hand-written notes to a reporter who had them published. She featured in a New York Times Documentary and took part in the Institute for War and Peace Reporting's 'Open Minds' Project; she was nominated for the International Children's Peace Prize and awarded Pakistan's first National Youth Peace Prize in December 2011. For her visibility and clear stand, the Taliban issued multiple death threats to both Malala and her father, and in October 2012 she was hit by a bullet through her head and neck. After extensive treatment in Pakistan she was brought to the United Kingdom, where she still stays and will undergo further operations. The assassination attempt and her recovery process have been followed by media from around the world and Malala not only has become a symbol of girls' and children's right to education and security, but also of the fight against extremism and oppression. She is reportedly nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize for 2013 by MPs from multiple countries including France, Canada and Norway. Harpviken finds that a prize to Malala would not only be timely and fitting with a line of awards to champions of human rights and democracy, but also set both children and education on the peace and conflict agenda.

Other possible candidates working on education is UNESCO, the educational, scientific and cultural organization of the UN which among other things concentrate on children's right to education, education in conflict settings and education as a bridgeway to peace. Another possibility is Betty Reardon, whose lifelong career in peace studies has been devoted to the development of peace education, broadly defined.

Denis Mukwege

For over a decade, gynaecologist Denis Mukwege has been treating and operating on survivors of sexual violence. In 1999 he founded the Panzi Hospital in Bakuvu in DR Congo with a primary purpose of taking care of victims of violence. Originally built for 120 patients, the hospital today treats over 400 patients per month and sadly the need for the hospital is as high as ever. Apart from having treated thousands of women and being considered one of the globally leading experts on repairing the physical damage from rape and sexual violence, Mukwege is somewhat of a grassroots hero in DR Congo and one of the world's most visible advocates of combatting sexual violence. He draws the world's attention to the brutality and consequences of these kinds of crimes and has been recipient of several awards for his work. The Director finds that both the person Mukwege and the cause for which he fights would be acknowledged by awarding him this year's Nobel Peace Prize.

Another potential candidate within the broader cateogry of violence against women is Irom Sharmila, the Indian social activitst and defender of women's rights, who has been on a hunger strike since 2000.

Lyudmila Alexeyeva, Svetlana Gannushkina and Lilya Shibanova

Despite the firm reactions of the Russian security apparatus and the slight slow-down in visible demonstrations against the Putin regime, the Russian protesters and dissidents continue their protest and fight for a state that is fair, democratic and in observance of civil rights. The formidable, female, three-generation trio consisting of Lyudmila Alexeyeva, Svetlana Gannushkina and Lilya Shibanova forms a good and deserving combination for a peace prize in acknowledgment of rights, democracy and reconciliation. Alexeyeva co-founded the Moscow Helsinki Group in 1976, taking its name from the Helsinki Final Act of 1975, an organization which in turn inspired other 'Helsinki' named organizations. She has been a staunch dissident and defender of Human Rights throughout her life and is still involved in organizing protests. Gannushkina is a founding member of the Russian organization Memorial, which - alongside Gannushkina - has figured on Harpviken's list earlier years. While Gannushkina especially has worked for the rights of Chechens, Memorial as such represents an innovative and important complement to conventional legal processes in their focus on coming to terms with history as a key to present day rights, democracy and reconciliation. Shibanova is the head of the only full scale government-independent election monitoring organization in Russia, Golos, founded in 2000. Especially given the present climate, Golos plays a key role in promoting democratic values and electoral rights of Russian citizens. In the recent elections, they systematically documented election frauds, using new technology. The critical role of elections in democracy, the propensity for elections in tense settings to invite political violence, and the importance of civil society monitoring are important reasons for including Shibanova.

Other possible candidates under this rubric, include human rights activists Ales Bialitski (Belarus) and Ragip Zarakolu (Turkey).

Democratic Voice of Burma

Independent reporting and free media is widely seen to positively contribute to peace, holding governments and others accountable. Despite of this, no peace prize has been awarded to the media. The Democratic Voice of Burma, set up in exile in Norway over 20 years ago, has had a network of reporters within Burma taping and filming and it is precisely this ability to contribute regular updates from a tightly controlled regime that distinguishes the DVB. With the opening up of Myanmar, the media station opens up offices in Yangon, its return signalling optimism for the transition from authoritarianism to representative democracy that is slowly, but seemingly steadily, unfolding in Myanmar.

Another candidate within the category is Echo of Moscow, one of the major independent sources of news and commentary in Russia and several CIS-countries.

John Onaiyekan and Mohamed Sa'ad Abubakar

The third favourite for 2013 is a joint prize to Archbishop John Onaiyekan and Sultan of Sokoto, Mohamed Sa'ad Abubakar, who have spoken out against the misuse of religion in legitimating conflict and have contributed to preventing outbreaks of violence. They have taken issue with the view that religion is the root of the conflict, which they see much more as interest driven, stimulated by poverty and unemployment. Both men have served as co-presidents for the Nigeria Inter-Religious Council (NIREC). Abubakar serves as head of the Nigerian National Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs and Onaiyekan is currently the head of the African Council of Religious Leaders. With Nigeria, and other parts of West Africa, having experienced a massive escalation of violence justified by religion, a price to Onaiyekan and Abubakar would be a timely comment. A shared prize would in itself underline the potential of religious dialogue to foster peace.

Another possible candidate working on interfaith dialogue is Archbishop John Baptist Odama from Uganda, who was active in the mediation with Joseph Kony and the LRA. A third is Ghazi bin Muhammad, professor in the Philosophy of Islamic Faith at Jordan University and member of the Jordanian Royal family. Prince Ghazi was the initiator of the 2005 Amman Message and the 2007 initiative known as 'A Common Word'. There are an additional number of other candidates in the same area, including St. Egidio, a Catholic order which combines humanitarian work and peace mediation. A prize to the Burmese monks who protested peacefully in 2007 (see above) could also be justified primarily by the dialogue potential of religion.

Alternative Directions

Non-violent resistance is sadly not the most frequent form of opposition reported in the media this last year, with the ongoing civil war in Syria and the current violent demonstrations in Egypt. Yet, the start of the Arab Spring was precisely based on non-violence, and Harpviken believes that this topic is deserving of a peace prize. Gene Sharp is an obvious candidate, his writings being circulated and inspiring activists on Tiananmen in 1989 to present day all over the world where there is oppression and authoritarianism. Other candidates in the same category is the Serbian non-violent organization Otpor! or its follow-up NGO Center for Applied Non Violent Action and Strategies (CANVAS) and its leader Srdja Popovic, which has been instrumental in disseminating knowledge of non-violence globally. A final possibility in this category would be to reward the monks in Burma for their 2007 protests which inspired the unfolding opening in the country: a prize to the All Burma Monks Alliance (ABMA), perhaps shared with Ashin Gambira, one of its founders, who was released by the Burmese government in early 2012.

There are also strong arguments for a prize to peace research. Steven Pinker, the celebrated Harvard psychologist who published The Better Angels of our Nature, has argued firmly that never has the world been more peaceful than it is now. Pinker's strong attempt at myth-busting has been met with widespread recognition. Other potential candidates within peace research are Paul Collier, Oxford University Professor of Economics and one of the world's most influential analysts of the causes and consequences of war; Michael Doyle and Bruce Russett, proponents of the Democratic Peace theory; and the Human Security Report Project (RSRP) and its founder, Andy Mack, who have persistently been arguing and documenting the post-1995 decline of wars, battle-deaths and genocides (but also been criticized for his 2012 claims about a decline in sexual violence). Gene Sharp also sits well in the peace research category with his academic work on non-violence. Likewise, Betty Reardon, discussed above under the vignette of peace education, is a possible candidate in the peace studies category.

There are a number of other topics that would merit a Nobel Peace Prize. One such topic is the fight against corruption and for redistribution of wealth, which has manifested itself in major cities across the world (one possible name would be John Githongo, Kenyan activist). A topic of considerable current relevance is multicultural understanding, which is still high on the Norwegian agenda after the terror attacks in Oslo and Utøya on 22 July 2011, but also an important concern in large parts of the world. Indisputably in line with the core intent expressed in Nobel's will is disarmament, but despite a number of processes and instruments, addressing anything from light arms to nuclear weapons, as well as a genuine risk of war over Iran's nuclear program, it is hard to see any that merits a Nobel Peace Prize at the moment. An emerging theme is food security, given the role of food shortages in triggering recent uprisings in North Africa and elsewhere, a theme that has been recognized in the past, with the 1970 Nobel Peace Prize to Norman Borlaug.

Nominations for the 2013 Nobel Peace Prize

Below is a list of confirmed and possible nominations based on information leaked to the press/web, possibly based on rumours and hearsay. It is by no means complete or assured, but represents a best possible list given the information present at the time of writing. In some cases it is unclear whether the nominator is indeed eligible for nominating. The full list of nominations is kept secret for 50 years.

• Military Religious Freedom Foundation, US Civil Rights Organization (self-reported)
• Malala Yousafzai (multiple nominations, among others by Canadian politicians)
• Archimandrite Gervasios Raptopoulos, Orthodox Greek priest helping prisoners (omsgsa.org)
• Susana Trimarco, human trafficking activist (voxxi.com)
• George Ryan, Illinois Governor opposing the death penalty (countercurrents.org)
• Giulio Andreotti, fmr. Italian PM for his role in developing nuclear neutralizing weapon system (Confirmed by US nominator)
• UNESCO and its former director, Federico Mayor (Confirmed by Ingeborg Breines, Co-president, International Peace Bureau)
• Betty Reardon, peace studies scholar with a lifelong focus on peace education (Confirmed by Ingeborg Breines, Co-president, International Peace Bureau)
• Gunnar Garbo, Norwegian peace activist, journalist, politician and ambassador (Confirmed by Norwegian nominator)
• Maggie Gobran, founder and head of the Egypt-based charity organization Stephen's Children (nominated by Norwegian MPs)
• Mordechai Vanunu, Israeli nuclear whistleblower (nominated by Norwegian MP)
• Lyudmila Alexeyeva (Russia) and Ales Bialitski (Belarus), both Human Rights champions (nominated jointly by Norwegian MPs)
• Aminatou Haidar (Western Sahara) and Rebyia Kadeer (Chinese Uyghur), both Human Rights champions (nominated jointly by Norwegian MPs)
• Denis Mukwege, Congolese gynaecologist (nominated by Norwegian MP)
• Women's International League for Peace and Freedom (WILPF) (confirmed nomination by the International Peace Bureau, and also nominated by Norwegian MPs)
• Damas de Blanco [Ladies in White], Cuban nonviolent opposition movement (nominated by members of the US Senate and House of Representatives)
• Tore Nærland, founder of Bike for Peace (nominated by Myanmar MP according to Gateway Gazette)
• Rosa Maria Payá Acevedo (daughter of previous peace prize nominee Oswaldo Paya) and Movimiento Cristiano Liberación [Christian Liberation Movement], Cuba (nominated by Norwegian MP)
• Leyla Zana, Kurdish member of the Turkish Parliament, engaged in nonviolent fight for Kurds' rights (nominated by Norwegian MPs)